BRAZIL-2+2=?

Why now?

A very long time ago I published on this bog a quote from John Steinbeck’s book, The Log from the Sea of Cortez. I cited the quote as possibly the single most cogent explanation of what causes the development of a society. I won’t quote it again because it is relatively long.

In summary, Steinbeck suggests (in 1939, mind you) that when the isolation of a community is broken by highways and high-tension wires the result is irreversible. The world is brought into the community and things will never be the same. Trucks will be able to deliver products from outside, canned foods, and all of the “stuff” (both good and bad) of civilization. 

High-tension wires will deliver information, lighting and end the power of darkness over activities. 

In just a few paragraphs, Steinbeck summarized all the literature of development that economists still debate. In a broader sense, Steinbeck simply states that once a community can “communicate” with the outside world, the Zeitgeist of development takes over.

In another post I wrote on the difference between neurosis and psychosis. Psychotics have an internal logic all their own and might tell you that the sum of two plus two is 27, 3,000, or whatever number matches their internal logic. 

The neurotic, however, will tell you that the sum of two plus two is four but that he/she considers that result unacceptable. The neurotic knows reality but simply does not accept it.

I have attributed Brazil’s recent problems to the rejection by its politicians of the results of the Real Plan. I believe now that the attribution was only partially correct. The Real Plan’s salutary economic effects had the effect of facilitating the entrance of the outside world to Brazil. Digital technology became the vehicleby which it entered.

As Simon and Garfunkel sang in The Sounds of Silence, “the words of the prophets are written on the subway walls…”. The smart phones, tablets, laptops, etc. are the new “subway walls”. The Real Plan facilitated the purchase of those devices and made it possible for Brazilians of every social and economic level to independently discover and accept that 2+2=4.

For literally centuries, Brazil’s kleptocrats had kept Brazil relatively isolated in a highly closed, protectionist economy. They sold the view that two plus two could be whatever they could make it and that no one was obliged to accept the answer as 4.

The Internet was as liberating as were Steinbeck’s highways and high-tension wires.

Neither the traditional kleptocrats nor the “neo-kleptocrats” are satisfied with the acceptance by Brazilians of the equation. Each wanted to control the process of isolation in their own way but they do not agree on what two plus two should be if 4 is unacceptable to both. (Hence the mutually exclusive nature of their respective “models”).

To his credit, Michel Temer appears to have read the writing on the “subway walls”. He knows that the isolation has been broken, that Brazilians can now accept that 4 is the correct result. His challenge is not to “lead the people”. It is to convince his colleagues that the “game” has ended. The “people” have rejected the models of both the traditional kleptocrats and the neo-kleptocrats in favor of the acceptance of 4 as the correct answer of the sum of two plus two.

It remains for the “elites” to accept not only that number but also that the public is now “wise to their game”, and no longer isolated.  Brazilians are anxious to join the rest of the world. 

The combined effects of increased purchasing power (via the Real Plan) and the information that reaches the public over the high-tension wires of Steinbeck have rendered the kleptocratic “model” useless as a form of government. 

That’s why both the PT and the “traditionals” have been rejected. As Abraham Lincoln is reported to have said, “…you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.” Or, to quote once again economist Herb Stein, “Things that cannot go on forever, don’t”. It’s over! We still don’t know the eventual outcome, but the “game” as it had been played for centuries has ended.

Oh, there will still be those who confiscate the rents of society but their ability to do so with impunity has ended. Henceforth, they will be held accountable when they are caught.