BRAZIL-It's a bit like a yacht race

And not always so genteel!

Watching the evolution of Brazil’s political environment is a bit like watching a yacht race in a headwind with a choppy sea. The boats are tossed around and are constantly tacking in response to strong headwinds that often and suddenly change direction.

The boats must negotiate the course to the finish line around various buoys (i.e. obstacles) while following the rules of right of way and “room” of the other boats.

Each boat tries to position itself to “steal the wind” of other boats to slow their progress while avoiding violations of the rules of the competition.

The “boats” are of varying size, sail areas, speed and maneuverability and the captains of the boats are of varying degrees of seamanship. In the current race, the captains Michel Temer, Eduardo Cunha, Dilma Rousseff, Lula, Renan Calheiros and Fernando Collor are all running the course, each seeking to cross the finish line ahead of the others.

By far, the largest yacht with the greatest sail area is captained by Dilma Rousseff. However, Dilma is an inexperienced captain, new to competitive yacht racing, and with some rather idiosyncratic notions of seamanship.

The second largest yacht is captained by Michel Temer who is both vice-president of Brazil and president of the country’s largest political party. Temer is also an experienced “sailor”, accustomed to strong headwinds, given to skills in tactical sailing in choppy water. He uses his tacking skills to often “steal the wind” of his opponents.

Both Calheiros and Cunha have smaller but fast boats. They are skilled at maneuvering, tacking sharply to “steal the wind” of other boats. They lack the sail area of the larger boats but are given to ruthless measures that “push the envelope” of the racing rules and “gentlemanly conduct”.

Lula’s yacht is quick and agile. Lula is by far the most aggressive “sailor” who consistently bends the rules, sometimes to the breaking point, aggressively threatens the other boats and follows a ruthless and risky form of seamanship.

Fernando Collor’s yacht is slower and less agile than the others. He is also a ruthless competitor but is limited by his previous experience when he collided with other boats and consequently has to be more cautious. His objective is not necessarily to finish first but rather to simply finish the race in a relatively good position.

I guess that pretty much exhausts the explanatory value of the metaphor. It is worth noting that yacht races are not necessarily the genteel affairs that the relative wealth of the competitors might suggest. The competition can be and often is cutthroat.

Your and my role in this figurative yacht race is simply that of spectator. The outcome of the race will be negative for the economy no matter who wins. It’s simply a matter of degree. My own view is that of the competitors, Michel Temer is the least negative for business.