...of a Marx Brothers movie
To no one’s surprise, Dilma did not make it to the PT 36th birthday party. She issued a declaration and provided an interview in which she stated that she does not govern for a party but rather for 204 million Brazilians
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Well, that’s the way it is supposed to be. However, the record suggests that neither is the case.
Lula “suggested” that Dilma change the course of the Brazilian Titanic – a monumental if not impossible task. The ship of state is dead in the water, there is too much water in the hold to allow the captain to control the ship in rolling seas. (Enough metaphor! I’m sure you got the message)
What the PT is proposing is just this side of ludicrous. It wants NO reform of the social security system and a 20% increase in the outlays for the Bolsa Família income maintenance program. The program is a formula for disaster.
Countries don’t go bankrupt, they simply become insolvent. Unfortunately, there is no lower limit to how far insolvency can take a country. It could conceivably become a Bangladesh or break out in violent revolution before falling that far.
Dilma is clearly a stone in Brazil’s shoe. Currently there are two ways to remove her from office. One is via impeachment. The other is by invalidating the 2014 election via the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
The first ushers in Vice-President Michel Temer to the presidency. The second makes Eduardo Cunha, Preside president of the Lower Chamber, a pro-tem president pending new elections.
There are problems with both approaches. The PMDB (Temer & Co.) favor impeachment. Even some members of the PT support this approach in the hope of maintaining the supposed “alliance” as a means of holding on to power until 2018 when Lula will once again run for office.
Two factions of the PSDB (opposition) are against impeachment. The faction led by Geraldo Alckmin and the one led by José Serra, both potential candidates to the presidency in 2018 would prefer that Dilma remain in office for the duration so as to block the candidacy of the other faction of the PSDB led by Aécio Neves.
That faction of the PSDB supports removing Dilma from office via the annulment of the 2014 election and new elections in which Aécio Neves would be a likely winner in the new election. However, nobody wants Eduardo Cunha to become the pro-tem president! Cunha is currently under investigation by Lava-Jato and is threatened with the loss of his mandate in the legislature.
Impeachment would be initiated by the Senate under President Renan Calheiros (PMDB) who is also under investigation by Lava-Jato and reportedly does not support Dilma's impeachment (But that could change!)
So getting Dilma out of the presidential palace is fraught will all manner of problems!
If Dilma stays the course until 2018 Brazil faces continued policy gridlock. Unable to govern via the legislature, Dilma would have to continue to rely on her use of the powers of the president to legislate via Provisional Measures and presidential decrees. This will lead to “junkyard dog” fights as the various factions cited above react and oppose whatever measures she proposes.
This all probably marks the final phase of the “knock-‘em-down-and-drag-‘em-out” War of the Kleptocrats. One or another group will eventually win and the ultimate loser will be the Brazilian population that will be required to endure the continued decline of the economy.
The situation has all the chaos of a Marx Brothers movie but without the element of comedy. It’s the essence of the world behind-the-looking glass. The logic of each faction is impeccable given its initial premises and the outcomes of each are totally absurd in the world in front of the looking glass where the rest of the world lives.
Invoking Economist Herb Stein once again: “Things that cannot go on forever, don’t.” That’s probably the best one can expect for the time being.
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