BRAZIL-The art of the forecast

I can’t resist!

In spite of my reputation as a monumental “ego”, I make an effort to be self-effacing (humble is a bit much to ask, but I do try to not take myself too seriously). However, since I made reference in my earlier post today in which I said I was proud of my track record in forecasting, I could not resist announcing that on 21 December, 2015 in a post entitled “Send ‘em all down to steerage…” I forecast that Mangueira would win the Samba School competition in Rio. I also forecast that Vai-Vai would win in São Paulo.

Vai-Vai did not win in São Paulo in spite of having won last year. Moreover, there was a problem with the voting of the judges in São Paulo. (it’s standard practice to complain of corruption in the judging when Samba School competition is concerned! As usual, the protest was accompanied by some pushing and shoving that required police intervention).

Vai-Vai was an easy pick because of its impressive showing last year but I confess that my knowledge of Rio and Mangueirain particular is greater than my knowledge of São Paulo and Vai-Vai,  However, Mangueira was a somewhat more difficult choice. Mangueira had not won first place in 13 years!

Since I tend to compare forecast scores with baseball batting averages* and notwithstanding the greater difficulty in picking Mangueira, I am pleased to say that at least I am batting .500. That’s a good average in baseball.

In any case, I will put the prediction into my “GOT IT!” file, which is noticeably thinner than my “MISSED THAT ONE” file but I hope you will consider my somewhat improved batting average in the Samba category as a contribution to my credibility.

*For those not familiar with baseball and the calculation of batting averages, the number represents the volume of hits by the batter as a percentage of times at bat. Baseball players get many times at bat and Economists are required to forecast often. In baseball an average of .250 (1 hit for every four times at bat) is considered good. Given the reputation of Economists, it might even be considered outstanding!!

In any case, we return to the “real world” on Monday, 15 February. Let's see how my battting average comes up in that environment!