BRAZIL-Dilma's payback strategy

“Here deal with this!”

Consistent with the PT’s allegations that Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment is a “coup d’état”, the administration is adopting a “scorched earth” strategy for leaving the presidential palace. Documents are being shredded and computer files deleted to inhibit access to any information that would facilitate a transition for Vice-President Michel Temer. It’s the PT’s payback for challenging its 13-year reign.

In addition, Dilma is signing spending bills prior to departure to tie up the fiscal accounts and inhibit economic recovery efforts.

The PT has announced that it intends to set up a “bunker” to obstruct the Temer administration during the period that Dilma is standing trial (up to 180 days) if her case is remanded over to the Senate.

Strangely (to my foreign eyes) is the fact that Dilma will continue to live in the residential area of the palace, have the use of an Air Force plane to travel, and can keep an entourage of advisors while standing trial. (When people comment that Brazil is a highly tolerant society they are certainly correct!)

Tomorrow, the Special Senate Commission on Impeachment will submit its report re the admissibility of the charges forwarded to the Commission by the Lower Chamber. The Senate will evaluate the report and decide on the question of whether or not to proceed with impeachment proceedings.

If indicted, Dilma will vacate the presidency (but not the Palace) for up to 180 days. Be prepared for a period of instability and possibly violent protests.

Analysis:

While Vice-President Michel Temer has assembled a rather impressive team of “notables” to see to the recovery of Brazil – both politically and economically, you should not set your expectations too high. 

Both the political and economic situations are in extreme disarray. 

There will be a brief “honeymoon” similar to the relief I referred to in a previous post regarding a tooth infection. The Temer administration will most likely only drill a hole in the infected tooth to let escape the accumulated gas that is causing unbearable pain.

Once that has been done, the tedious, painful and commodious root canal work will begin. We have to remember that if Temer assumes the presidency, Brazil will have returned to management by its “traditional” kleptocracy composed of over 30 political parties, 25 of which have a presence in the legislature.

This is a watershed moment in Brazil’s post-Republican history and the necessary political complement to the economic reforms initiated with the Real Plan.