A.k.a. The Apocalypse
Brazil is truly in “Apocalyptic mode”. Over the past few days there have been numerous revelations that suggest “the end is near”, at least in Brazil.
Things began with the plea bargain of Sergio Machado, former president of Transpetro – a Petrobrás subsidiary, and the “revelation” of audio tapes of his conversations with high-level government officials that suggested that everyone (except the voting public) wants to “gag” and incapacitate the Lava-Jato investigation and its so far 30 investigative phases.
While the audios presented did not indicate or prove any criminalactions they revealed that key political “leaders” are terrified of being dragged up before Judge Sergio Moro – lead magistrate in the Lava-Jato investigation.
Machado claims to have a full 6 hours of embarrassing conversations. It’s clear that he is trying to save his own skin by throwing his former “friends” into the cauldron.
He does not relish having to deal with the Federal Police, the Public Prosecutor, and Judge Sergio Moro. He went so far as to suggest a “pact” among all concerned to constrain Lava-Jato. The conversations suggested that he was firing some “shots across the bows” of those he called – raising general issues to get their “take” on what to do about the investigations while proposing they all stick together.
One of those with whom he spoke, a former President, stated that Brazil is currently under the “dictatorship of the law”. How’s that for an oxymoron? Machado offered that if Lava-Jato was allowed to continue, perhaps no more than 5 politicians would emerge unscathed!
Another concern voiced was for the possibility that Marcelo Odebrecht could also negotiate a plea bargain. Odebrecht’s company, that bears his family name, is (or perhaps was) Brazil’s largest construction company and was accused of being the “coordinator” of the Petrobrás financial scandal. He knows where a lot of “bodies are buried” that could “resurrect” in the ensuing political Apocalypse.
In addition to the list of “usual suspects” the plea bargain testimony of a former federal deputy (a member of the Lower Chamber), Pedro Correa, has provided 72 “chapters” of cases of corruption. Correa reportedly testified that he had been involved in “managing” corruption for three decades.
His depositions added and implicated former President Lula, Dilma Rousseff, and numerous others to the "perp" list. (Maybe the observation that only 5 will be left standing is accurate!)
So far, Correa’s testimony has involved 80 members of the Lower Chamber, 17 senators, one sitting governor and six former governors, two cabinet ministers and 18 former ministers. Even in the possibly unlikely case that none of those cited see the inside of the slammer, their reputations will be ruined once Lava-Jato starts calling those named to answer the allegations. (We should remember that plea bargains are based on the obligation of the accused to provide proof in support of testimony).
In the Apocalypse the “just” are taken up to heaven (i.e. the “rapture”) before the end of time begins. In Brazil’s case, a “reverse rapture” seems likely, in which the corrupt are first dragged down into a political hell!
Analysis:
I am hardly a biblical scholar and not particularly "religious" so my metaphor is necessarily sketchy. Nevertheless, the panic and fear that is accompanying the plea bargains of key political mucky-mucks is palpable and suggestive of the kind of chaos that would accompany the end of time.
Issues that might have been considered “dead” are “resurrecting”. One can expect a “Final Judgment” of those who have transgressed for years and their “sins” judged, or at least revealed.
The individuals who spoke with Sergio Machado generally agreed that stopping Lava-Jato would not be possible, even with the support of the Supreme Court. In fact, some of the testimony suggested that some members of the Supreme Court might have had some “unholy” past connections with some of the corrupt politicians cited in the plea bargains. Some names were mentioned in the context of using long-time relationships with some Justices to be used in an attempt to shut down Lava-Jato. I doubt that any of the Justices will step forward to curb any investigations of corruption that are conducted in conformity with the law.
Be prepared for a long period of political chaos, learning that many of the iconic figures in Brazilian politics have “feet of clay” and continued controversy.
This will necessarily slow down the rate of recovery of the economy as policy issues become “negotiating chips” that politicians will use to try to get "off the hook".
We are in for “interesting times”!
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