BRAZIL-A succession of "perfect storms"?

Snippets

Temer’s travails:

Like Diogenes wandering throughout Athens in search of an honest man, Vice-President Michel Temer is wandering throughout Brazil performing the same task in order to form a transition government if Dilma Rousseff is impeached. 

The Brazilian “quid pro quo” public sector management model makes Temer’s task a formidable one. Temer is forced to select his transition cabinet from the collection of traditional kleptocrats (and a few neo-kleptocrats who have recently jumped ship to join the expected “winners” in the impeachment battle).

In addition to searching for an honest man (or woman) Temer faces “operational constraints” with regard to governing. 

If he assumes the presidency his interim “vice-president” will be the president of the Lower Chamber of the legislature, Eduardo Cunha, who today faces the possibilityof losing his mandate because of criminal charges against him and a Congressional Inquiry of the Ethics Committee of the Lower Chamber. If Cunha “walks” and is not kicked out of the Congress, every time Temer has to vacate the office of President, Cunha would become the interim President. An interim president facing criminal charges is a “no-no” even in Brazil’s rather complex politics.

Finally, Temer faces the challenge of dealing with the shenanigans of the PT to obstruct his initiatives to get the fiscal accounts in order while Dilma is standing trial in the Senate (she will be out of office for up to 180 days during the trial). The PT will be organizing street demonstrations and trying to obstruct any of Temer’s initiatives in the legislature with the few remaining loyalists of the party coalition. Until it is clear that Dilma will, in fact, be impeached and has been sent packing every effort will be made to delay the final verdict for beyond 180 days after which she could return to office.

The tangled web:

The continuing investigations of corruption repeatedly reveal the extent of systemic corruption. At present, some 79 separate investigations are underway. It sometimes looks as if there was no project in Brazil that did not involve kickbacks, bribes, or crony politics.

Moreover, each case uncovered reveals direct or dotted lines to a criminal organization that would be the envy of the Mob. Even opposition politicians are accused of having benefitted by the schemes attributed to the PT in the Lava-Jato investigation. It’s a web of interconnected corruption of extreme complexity and complicates Temer’s search for an honest man or woman whose self-interest is constrained by some element of morality with regard to governing the public weal.

The most politically dangerous man in Brazil:

Just as Lula has proclaimed himself as the “most honest person in Brazil”, Senator Delcídio Amaral can lay claim to the “most politically dangerous person in Brazil”. Amaral, the former PT leader in the Senate, is providing depositions under a plea bargain and he has spared no one in his statements. 

The most recent suggests that both Dilma and Lula were involved in the criminal obstruction of justice in alleged attempts to frustrate and/or control the Lava-Jato investigation(s). 

Dilma (again) issued a public statement to the effect that Amaral is a known “liar” with a long history of untruth. She (naturally) repudiates the allegations. 

Amaral’s “revolving machine gun” has so far spared no one and he is believed to know a lot more and is prepared to continue to “sing”. Numerous members of the legislature are reported to be sweating profusely as Amaral continues to provide his depositions.

An unrelated but supremely ironic decision:

Illustrative of the contradictions of Brazil’s “governance model” is the decision to grant a Mother’s Day leave of absence to a young woman currently serving a prison sentence for the murder of her parents! That truly  boggles the mind! Will she go shopping for a Mother’s Day present? Who will she visit or take to lunch for the occasion? I confess that this is the most absurd thing I have ever seen!

Analysis:

The contradictions embedded in the Brazilian “model” have created a most intricate web of interconnected and pernicious events that challenge the ability to recover from the consequences of the actions of its leadership. 

Temer’s search for a “team” that can stand outside the “quid pro quo” political system clearly illustrates the contradictions created by kleptocracy. It has threatened the very existence of the system itself. It’s a society positioned against itself.

As I write this post, the talking heads are reporting that Supreme Court Justice Teori Zavascki has determined that Eduardo Cunha must lose his mandate and step down from the Presidency of the Lower Chamber. Cunha is a leading figure in Temer’s party (PMDB) but his current circumstances render him useless and even a liability to Temer in the presidency. Cunha has been officially notified of the Justice’s ruling.

At the same time, the PMDB is complaining to Temer that if he follows through on his promise to reduce the number of cabinet posts from 32 to 20, there won’t be enough positions to go around to all “interested parties”.

It’s no longer the War of the Kleptocrats but rather a war between Brazil and its kleptocrats. If Temer’s hands are tied by his own party – Brazil’s largest – he is going to have a tough time of it trying to stabilize the situation, put some order into the fiscal accounts, and maintain a base of support in the Legislature.

Add in the resistance that the PT will be generating to subvert his short term in office (if Dilma is impeached) and you have yet another perfect storm.

More later as events occur!