BRAZIL-"If you can keep your head while all about you are losing theirs..."

...you probably underestimate the seriousness of the situation!

(I asked my blonde girlfriend if she liked Kipling and she said she did not know because she had never “kippled”!)

The kleptocrats are in an interesting bind!

Yesterday the Supreme Court considered the case of Eduardo Cunha, President of the Lower Chamber, and arrived at a compromise solution: he was suspended from his Congressional mandate and from his position as President of the Lower Chamber. He did not lose his mandate in either Congress or as President of the Lower Chamber, he was simply suspended. He continues to draw his salary and benefits as a member of the Congress.

He has been succeeded by his second-in-command, Waldir Maranhão, who is considered a Cunha ally. However, Maranhão is also reported to be on the list of those being investigated by Lava-Jato. (Who is noton the list? There must be someone!)

Cunha made a public statement that after analyzing the action of Supreme Court, he will decide how to proceed. He said that he clearly intends to challenge the suspension.

It doesn’t look like the decision has resolved the question of who would be No. 2 in a Temer administration if Dilma is impeached. 

One interpretation of the law is that as stand-in President of the Lower Chamber, Maranhão could not step into the presidency temporarily if Temer (as President) should have to travel outside Brazil. 

Rather, the job of stand-in would fall to the President of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, who is also under investigation by Lava-Jato! (Are you following this so far?)

In the event that Calheiros could also not assume the presidency while Temer was otherwise occupied, the job of stand-in would fall to the President of the Supreme Court, Ricardo Lewandowski (who is not under any investigation)!

But, all the foregoing notwithstanding, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) could still decide to nullify the 2014 election based on illegal campaign contributions to the Rousseff-Temer ticket. That would require new elections. 

But, Temer has submitted a writ to the TSE requesting that his campaign expenses be considered separately from those allocated to Dilma Rousseff. That issue reportedly remains open. In other words, the election could be nullified but only as regards Dilma Rousseff and notthe joint ticket! (Still with me?)

Meanwhile, today the Special Senate Committee for impeachment will vote on the final report of its findings regarding the admissibility of the charges against Dilma. If the Senate accepts the findings, Dilma must vacate the office of President for up to 180 days and stand trial.

If she is found guilty, she is impeached and must vacate the office once and for all. If she is not found guilty, or if the trial lasts for more than 180 days, she returns to office.

However, both Dilma and Lula have now come under the Lava-Jato spotlight as a result of the plea bargain depositions of Senator Delcídio Amaral (former head of the PT in the Senate) who is facing charges of obstruction of justice.

To add to the confusion, Temer’s plan to reduce the number of cabinet posts in the Executive branch is shipping water because there are more partisan requests for appointments (26) than the number of posts that Temer was reported to have in mind (20). Currently, there are 32. 

Temer is also reported to be finding it difficult to find experienced appointees who are not under investigation for one thing or another.

(Another quandary is what if Cunha is indicted, arrested and decides to negotiate a plea bargain as did PT Senator Delcídio Amaral? Two loose cannons on the same deck?! The mind boggles!)

The more I read and hear from my sources about the bribery scandals the more I think a book entitled “Biographies of Politicians in Brazil Not ‘On the Take’” would qualify as one of the world’s shortest!

The situation has become surreal!!

(Yawn!)