It took a long time
After a 16-hour session last night, the Congress approved the administration’s request for a R$170.5 billion deficit level for 2016.
As promised, the PT engaged in strident opposition to anything and everything the government proposed.
Also significant was the loss of Romero Jucá in the Planning Minister post. A former president of Transpetro (Petrobrás subsidiary) released an audio tape of a phone conversation in which Jucá was critical of Lava-Jato and its effects in the political arena.
Because Temer holds Jucá in high regard as a politician and economist, it appears that he agreed to allow Jucá to “fall on his sword” rather than fire him. However, Jucá did not resign his position. Rather, he declared that he would take a leave of absence until the public prosecutor rendered a final decision as to whether he should be prosecuted. Consequently, he got fired!
The talking heads suggested that Temer was vacillating and hesitant and should have been more decisive. I believe they have underestimated Temer in that regard.
Jucá had presented a rambling and unconvincing defense of his comments, claiming that he was talking about the economy and not Lava-Jato and that only portions of his conversation had been published. However, when the entire conversation was later published, he was “toast”. Since he did not fall on his sword, he was pushed on it! Nevertheless, it was a blow to Temer and weakened his team.
On the heels of the release of the conversation with Jucá another tape was released of a conversation with Senate President Renan Calheiros. A conspiracy theorist would have a field day with those releases!
While Temer is the quintessential politician, it would be a mistake to presume that he is not tough under his genteel exterior. He has been around Brazil’s “bare knuckle” politics for a long time and he is unflappable. He has currently ordered an audit of some of the PT’s projects and, if my sources have informed me correctly, he is likely to uncover some shady deals.
He does not appear to be the least bit intimidated by the thuggish rhetoric of Lula, Dilma, and other members of the PT and they provoke him at their peril. As the saying goes, “When the tide goes out, it’s easy to see who is not wearing bathing trunks!”
In spite of Temer’s reputation as a savvy politician, the PT has promised to obstruct everything it can as Dilma’s impeachment trial approaches. Neither side of the conflict is made up of Boy Scouts, so be prepared for all manner of dirty tricks for the next few months.
Temer is approaching the crisis piecemeal and with caution. While he is not the most popular politician in Brazil, he can count on the majority of the population to support any reasonable effort to get the economy back on track. If that occurs, even haltingly, he will maintain his advantage and public sentiment will gradually shift in his favor.
The only thing I find difficult to understand is why Brazil’s politicians are so “loose-lipped” on the telephone! Tancredo Neves, one of Brazil’s most astute politicians used to say, “The telephone should only be used to set up a luncheon meeting, and even then in the wrong place!”
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