BRAZIL-Be prepared!

Now what?

Let’s take a “New Jersey” look at yesterday’s events and the events leading up to them.

Why did the police escort Lula to the deposition in São Paulo?

When Lula was served notice that he and his family would be called in for a deposition in São Paulo he publicly stated that he would not show up. He claimed that São Paulo did not have jurisdiction in the matter. In fact, he filed a writ to have the court cancel the order to provide testimony in São Paulo. Lula’s family was spared the audience, but Lula was not. But he did not show up on Thursday, the day the audience had initially been announced. When you do not obey a deposition order, the police show up at your door by the next day and escort you to the audience. It’s automatic!

Why did Dilma issue a request to pardon José Dirceu?

José Dirceu was cited by the Public Prosecutor’s office as the intellectual architect of the PT plan to remain in power in perpetuity and the mastermind behind the corruption schemes. 

He reportedly works in the background and is often cited as the “interlocutor” of the left-wing hardliners of the PT and Brazil’s assortment of Communist parties with Fidel Castro and the Foro de São Paulo. If the PT were to opt to confront its opponents, it would be preferred that Dirceu be out of jail and available for “consultation”. 

I suggested in a previous post that if there was not a method to the madness of Dilma’s proposal to commute Dirceu’s sentence then is was merely madness. While Dirceu was serving his sentence for his role in the mensalão case he was accused of working on the Petrobrás financial fraud. Requesting his release was an act of sheer chutzpah.

Why does the administration seek to impose the same economic policies that have failed for the past 5 years?

Can we really believe that the administration does not know the likely outcome of those policies? The administration knows that it will run a deficit this year. The administration knows that it is unpopular with the voting public. The administration refuses to make any concessions and seek the cooperation of those who want to “fix” the economy. 

Although reportedly estranged from Lula and a majority of the PT, Dilma does his bidding and rushes to his defense on every occasion when he is attacked. She has replaced cabinet members with his choices. She can’t govern with her own party but seeks no support from any others who have expressed concern or dissidence.

Analysis:

Can we hypothesize that Lula actually wanted the circus atmosphere that accompanied his deposition? 

He left the deposition and did not return home. Rather, he went to the PT office downtown where he issued a number of pronouncements, slammed the “elites”, described in bombastic detail his trajectory from poverty to presidency, painted himself as a victim, and exhorted his followers to take to the streets. 

He effectively declared war against the “system” and, as he said years ago, “everything that is out there”. He invoked the concept of class warfare. He offered NO defense to refute the charges against him. He simply claimed “victimhood” and fanned the flames of anger and indignation. If he was not spoiling for a fight, he certainly gave the wrong impression! It was demagogic theater at its best.

This might be the only card left for Lula to play. He did the same sort of thing when he was a labor leader. He provoked the system and even got himself arrested under the military’s national security law. He was masterful at casting himself as both a fighter and a victim of “the system” (i.e. everything that was out there). However, he did not play the “class warfare” card as often as he does now. His “enemy” at the time was Brazil’s antiquated Labor Code and the way it was applied in the manufacturing sector. The Labor Movement was his “stepping stone” to politics. He had presented himself as a “bridge” between management and labor and the harbinger of a modern organized labor movement.

I think it would be a gross simplification to say that Lula changed over the years. More likely is that he simply revealed specific facets of his personna as circumstances required. 

The one “constant” is that Lula is the quintessential political “animal”. He has little patience with doctrine, intellectuals, and philosophical approaches to issues. 

Dirceu is the political theorist and planner, Dilma the faithful ideological acolyte.

In spite of his sparse formal education, Lula has a sharp native intelligence. He graduated from the University of Hard Knocks with a PhD and he knows how to make use of his experience. He knows how to “work a crowd” and employ the vernacular of the “common folk”.

Those attributes can make a power-hungry populist both effective and dangerous.

I suspect that Lula is now about to show his dangerous side. He has issued a call for his supporters to take to the streets against the targets of his ire. A large anti-PT demonstration is scheduled for the 13^thand Lula’s dominant strategy would be to make a show of strength (if he, in fact, has it at his disposal) and put his followers out there as well. 

If that happens, confrontation is almost certain and likely to be violent.

That will allow Lula to claim that his class warfare argument is correct: the elites don’t want to “mix” with the “rabble”.

I suggest you monitor events closely going forward. The information provided to the authorities by Senator Delcídio Amaral hits close to home for Lula and Dilma and there is more to come. It is potentially highly explosive and nerves have been on edge for two days now.