“I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it any more”
In a landmark dark-comedy written in 1976 entitled “Network”, US playwirght Paddy Chayefsky created an incident not entirely unlike what happened in Brazil yesterday.
In a problem-battered US in the mid-70s (Vietnam, Oil price hikes, urban violence, a plethora of “Liberation Armies” robbing banks, etc.) a TV news anchorman decides to exhort the people to protest. He instructs them to all open their windows and scream, “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it any more!” Millions of angry Americans do as suggested.
Something similar occurred in Brazil in an equally unprecedented fashion yesterday when between 3 million (police estimate) and 5 million (organizer estimate based on some cities left out of the official estimate) citizens peacefully protested the current political situation and demanded the removal of Dilma Rousseff from office and the investigation of the frauds of which Lula has been accused.
However, and most importantly, while the direct focus of the protests (in 26 states, the Federal District, 239 cities and Brazilians living abroad) centered on Dilma, Lula, and the PT, it was also a shot across the bow of all of Brazil’s kleptocrats. The message was clear: “We are fed up and not going to take it anymore!”
Aécio Neves and Geraldo Alckmin were both foolish enough to show up to glad hand some of the protestors and were not well received and met with a hostile reception and catcalls of “opportunists”. They left in short order after some praise for the movement.
I was rather impressed and surprised at the peaceful nature of the demonstrations. It was by far the most impressive demonstration of civic responsibility on the part of such a large group spread across such a wide geographic swath that I had ever seen. (And I saw a lot in the USA in the late 60s and mid 70s to incllude the resignation of Richard Nixon who was facing impeachment.)
At the end of the day, the administration, confused and in panic issued its standard “that’s democracy” statement accompanied by praise for the “maturity” of the protestors. (As if it had expected something less dignified on the part of what Stalin used to call his “useful idiots”.)
The underlying message to Brazil’s kleptocrats was “You WILL represent us in the appropriate manner or we will simply remove you from office and put you in a cage!”
The peaceful nature of the demonstrations might have led to some kleptocrats to conclude that the protestors were entreating them to act. If so, they have made in my view what is a serious mistake. There was no “request” built into the demands. It was a gently issued order to either shape up or ship out!
There’s been no shortage of second guessing on the part of those interested in taking over from Dilma, Lula and the PT. Most of it appears to be the typical opportunistic thinking of previous occasions. I suspect that if those who follow the current “new” kleptocrats are simply representatives of the “traditional” kleptocrats as I described in my earlier posts, they will be met with the same sort of response.
As I wrote previously, it is highly likely that the winner of the War of the Kleptocrats will also be a kleptocrat. The ultimate targets of the protests were not simply Dilma, Lula and the PT – the target was the kleptocracy!
The public came out to say that it will no longer tolerate the confiscation of its rents that should be going to building a prosperous and open access society. It might take a while for this to settle into the minds of the more obtuse kleptocrats.
The fallout from yesterday’s protests is one of total confusion so far. Some talking heads are analyzing the issue in terms of ideology – suggesting that the call is for a “conservative orthodox” approach. I sensed no ideological “bias” on the part of those protesting. The message seemed to be “Just do it right, dammit! We’re fed up with the bullshit!”
If I am right, a lot of things are going to change in Brazil. If I am wrong, then we can expect to see it all again in another 10 or 15 years when the incoming kleptocrats mess it up again.
The “opportunists” seem to be interpreting the situation much in same way I described an Italian opera tenor in an earlier post. Asked by the audience to repeat an aria several times, he stopped and engaged in a bombastic speech about his talent and how he would have to stop and let the less talented singers have a chance when a little old lady in the audience stood up and said “No way, mister. You’re gonna sing it again till you get it right!!” The underlying message was the same to Brazil’s kleptocrats – “We don’t care about your ideological views. You’re gonna sing the aria again until you get it right!!”
As long as Lava-Jato continues to ferret out and sanction kleptocrats of every ideological stripe the pressure will continue and shift to the Legislature. New leadership will emerge. This is certain to be a lengthy process but one that will then pressure the Executive Branch to be more diligent.
It is the application of Skinnerian psychology of reinforcing desired behavior. Those who misunderstand the resolve of the demonstrators will have a hard time of it.
I do not rule out resistance to the change nor do I rule out the possibility of violence, especially on the part of the PT that now sees its hold on power to be virtually non-existent.
Even if Dilma hangs on to the bitter end, she will be powerless. Lula might well be convicted depending on what else pops up in investigation. The decision to place him in preventive detention (see previous post on this matter) was a total surprise and is currently being analyzed by the courts.
The next few weeks will be quite interesting. The PT is so far in total mental disarray as to what to do now. The PT is expected to take to the street on the 20th and we will see how that pans out.
Do not abandon your scenario building now!! Yesterday holds all the potential of being a watershed moment in Brazilian politics. Restoring the damage done to the Brazilian Titanic is going to be an awesome task.
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