BRAZIL-The forty-minute cabinet minister

Wow, that was quick!

Yesterday, Dilma Rousseff officially appointed her new cabinet ministers, one of which was former President Lula.

The ceremony was marked by a pugnacious and defiant speech that, as usual, painted the PT as the victim of a coup. Dilma claimed that democracy was being held in check by a group of “malefactors” and conspirators and promised to “fight” to end the “misery”.

(You should make sure you heard the entire speech and plan your scenarios accordingly!)

Lula’s glory was short-lived. Forty minutes after his nomination a court order suspended his appointment and at least for the time being, he is still not a member of the cabinet. The PT has challenged the order and as yet there is no indication as to how long it could take for the challenge to be adjudicated.

Protestors on both sides of the issue are camped out throughout the country. The Special Committee to consider Dilma's impeachment was set up today to analyze the charges to be presented for her impeachment. She can actually start preparing her defense if she wants to.

Tension runs high and a few minor fights have broken out on the street but no major confrontations have yet occurred.

So far, all of the fighting has been in the form of legal wrangling. Over the next 30 days a lot could happen, so be prepared. I have laid out some extreme scenario material in previous posts and I recommend that you review them with your management team.

Analysis:

Without going into the “numbers”, party defections, changing positions of key actors, etc. I suspect that tensions will increase markedly.

It is a maxim of warfare that you should never engage an enemy whose back is to the sea. The soldiers will fight harder knowing that they have no way out of the dilemma.

During the 80s and 90s executives read books on military strategy – e.g. The Art of War by Sun Tzu, or A Book of Five Rings by Miyamoto Musashi. You might want to see if you still have copies of those books on your bookshelf!

There is little doubt that the PT is positioned with its back to the sea. The odds now favor Dilma’s impeachment and that will usher in the PMDB that will have little to gain from re-approximating with the PT. 

I do not expect the PT (read Lula) to “gently into the dark night” of political oblivion and Dilma’s rhetoric suggests that he (and she) won’t.

Sun Tzu writes that in times of peace one should prepare for war and in times of war one should prepare for peace. 

I argued some time ago in this blog that I thought (and think still) that Brazil needs A PT. But I also argued at the time that it did not need THISPT.

Going forward, a lot will depend on how the PT rank-and-file perceive the party’s options. It could choose to stand and fight beside Lula, or it could choose to adapt, regroup and play by the rules of institutional democracy. You need to consider both alternatives.

I confess that I am NOT an optimist when it comes to bar fights!