BRAZIL-The inconvenient question

What if she "walks"?

There are three ways Dilma Rousseff can be removed from office. One is through the annulment of the 2014 elections by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The second is through an impeachment trial. Neither offers a certain outsome. The fhird is that Dilma could simply renounce her office. Yesterrday she categorically dismissed  the third option in an aggressive press conference. The TSE could conclude that there is insufficient hard evidence to justify cancelling an election. The impeachment process requires three steps:

• Peparation and approval by the Lower Chamber of the charges to be submitted to the Senate;
• Acceptance by the Senate of the charges of the Lower Chamber
• An impeachment trial

If the Lower Chamber's document is "weak" as regards the existence of an impeachable offense, it could be rejected in plenary session.

According to the Supreme Court ruling regarding impeachment proceedings, the Senate could simply reject the Lower Court document and there will be no trial.

If there is an impeachment trial, Dilma could be acquitted of the charges and return to office.

Many a horse race has been won by some 16-to-1 long shot.that suddenly spurts ahead in the home stretch to cross the finish line ahead of the pack.

You should definitely consider the possibility in your scenarios.

Let's look at the actors:

• Eduardo Cunha (President of the Lower Chamber)::The Lower Chamber's report is put together by a Special Committee which has been hand-picked by Dilma's nemesis: Eduardo Cunha (President of the Chamber). The committee's report must be approved by a 2/3 majority in the Chamber before being submitted to the Senate. Cunha is facing charges in both a Congressional Inquiry of the Ethics Committe of the Chamber that could lead in the worst case (for him) to the loss of his mandate, and in the Lava-Jato investigaetion. Some time ago he was reported to have talked to Dilma about tying up impeachment  charges in procedural wranglings in exchange for efforts to get him off the hook. When it appeared unlikely that Dilma could deliver on his reported request, he assumed the opposite approach and began to assemble evidence for her impeachment. 
• Renan Calheiros (President of the Senate): The Senate can simply override the recommendations for impeachment as submitted by the Lower Chamber and reject the document. Calheiros has been an on-again-off-again spporter of Dilma and has threatened on occasion to split the PMDB (his party and the party of the vice presdient, Michel Temer who would assume office if Dilma is impeached). With 6 cabinet appointments the PMDB is divided on the issue of impeachment.
• The Supreme Court: The Court oversees the impeachment trial that is conducted by the Senate. Dilma has been reported to have said that she has 5 of the Supreme Court Justices "in her pocket" so the possibility of her acquittal exists. 

So, at each juncture, it would appear that there is the possibility that Dilma could find herself back in the presidential palace after what is likely to be a very nasty trial. Her personality profile and the PT's traditional "grace" following a victory suggest that an acquittal will be followed by a vicious witch hunt of the PT's "enemies".

One has only to look at the actions of the so-called Commission of Truth that conducted a witch hunt of the military for "crimes against humanity" of torture and murder in spite of an amnesty law that dates back to the 80s.

It should also be remembered that the guerrilla movement to which Dilma associated was not organized to restore democracy usurped by a right-wing authoritarian regime. It was to replace the right-wing authoritarian regime with a left-wing authoritarian regime.

Her past behaviors notwithstanding, her current behavior also begs the question of why when faced with one policy failure after another over 5 years she continues to espouse the same failed policies. Together with Lula she has masterfully controlled the legislature to the point of gridlock. If she can't get she wants she can at least ensure that no else (including 68% of the population and her lowest popularity rating on record) can get what they want. While she can't govern, no one else can either.

Her apparently "stage-managed" differences with Lula appear to be largely regarding superficial issues such as protecting herself against charges of corruption. She continues to come to Lula's rescue or do his bidding on a regular basis.

Her behavior suggests that either she is simply incapable of recognizing her policy failures or she recognizes them as part of the process of imposing the "New Economic Framework" that has never been discussed with the electorate but that is apparently predicated on the PT remaining in power in perpetuity. Note also, that she and Lula have continued to attempt to dismantle Lava-Jato in spite of its popularity among the voters and demands for its continuation and its successes against corruption.

Consequently, I consider it germane to include a scenario (however improbable it might seem) that is based on Dilma's return to office after escaping impeachment. I have not seen or heard this issue raised in the press or by the analysts and pundits who seem to think impeachment is a foregone conclusion.

It just might not be that simple!