BRAZIL- Promised follow up on "Looney Tunes" post of the 11th

Don’t mess with the Law of Entropy (see today's post below)

The Looney Tunes environment continues as Brazil moves inexorably in the direction of systemic disorder. Following my post on the 11^th it is important to present and analyze the following additional material.

The past week has been marked by a series SNAFUs (i.e. “Situations Normal All ‘Fouled’ Up”). [If you have even been in the military, you know why “fouled” is in quotes.]

Brazil’s current situation is the “normal” result of the entropic effects of kleptocracy. The chaos that has ensued has yet to reorder the system.

In fact, the behaviors could readily serve to accelerate the the approach of more disorder.

March 11^thwas a day that one should not have missed the “talking heads” of the news agencies discussing the administration’s reactions to the chaos. Unfortunately disorder descended on my office in the form of a power outage that made it necessary to watch all the repetitions of the day’s reports and analyses in the wee hours of this morning.

Below is a summary of some of the Looney Tune behaviors and proposals of those in charge of running the system:

• The PMDB held its convention yesterday and the topic discussed was whether to abandon the 13-year alliance to continue its support of the “governing” PT coalition that is notgoverning. The decision was to freeze the approval of any additional PMDB presidential appointments to “buy” the party’s support in the legislature for 30 days while it continues to analyze the “wisdom” of jumping ship.
• Every time it rains it does not rain “pennies from Heaven”. In fact, it rains in Brazil to bring “flooding from Earth”. Various municipalities in Brazil are once again flooded and one in São Paulo has been under water since 20 February!
• Nevertheless, São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin announced on TV that the “water shortage” that had plagued Brazil for the past several months had ended. You betcha! There’s water all over the place now! Will it serve to increase the mosquito population that is causing a public health epidemic? Whether it will eventually serve to solve the shortage problem of potable water is another matter!
• Moreover, Alckmin has announced that he just might show up at the anti-PT demonstration scheduled for today as a private citizen. (Maybe it has not occurred to Alckmin that he is currently not a private citizen but rather the Governor of Brazil’s most important state that is facing serious problems whenever it rains. He might be better off attending a protest rally to impeach himself and then showing up elsewhere as a private citizen.)
• Finance Minister Nelson Barbosa came out of hiding to declare on TV that the fiscal situation is serious and worsening and the government needs to impose a plan ASAP. (Wait a minute! Wasn’t he previously the PlanningMinister for a number of years?)
• The plea bargain document submitted to the Federal Police by Senator Delcídio Amaral has implicated Dilma and Lula in the fraud scheme of the acquisition of the Pasadena, Texas refinery. The Superior Accounting Court (TCU) has announced that it will review the information. (Panic has increased in the administration.)
• Dilma anticipated today’s mass protest to advise that she has no intention of resigning from office and there is insufficient evidence to impeach her. (The message: A big “banana” to you guys!)

Analysis:

Every one of the above incidents and the “management” decisions based on them are certain to accelerate the growth of disorder. The acute phase of the crisis continues and this is the phase in which everything seems to depend on and feed everything else. We have yet to enter the “chronic” phase of a crisis in which the path to resolution begins.

For example:

• Alckmin’s decision to appear as a “common citizen” is a transparent show of a self-serving attempt at gaining a photo-op to support his attempt to become a candidate for the presidency. It’s an ironic twist on his initial attempts to cozy up to the administration and now seek to impeach it. It’s Looney Tunes at its best.
• The PMDB’s decision to delay its break with the administration for 30 days is simply a ridiculously-disguised attempt to see if more opportunities exist to feed of the remainder of the carcass before moving on to "more urgent matters".
• Dilma has made it abundantly clear that the existence and/or size of the protests makes little difference to her behavior going forward. She’s just letting the protestors get a dose of “democracy”
• Nelson Barbosa’s announcement that the fiscal adjustment program needs to be enacted ASAP is pathetic. Why is he telling the TV audience who already know the situation is bad, and not telling his boss? If Dilma says she is indifferent to the requests of the protestors, what response can Barbosa expect?
• The administration appears to be more concerned for what Senator Delcídio Amaral can reveal in his plea bargain than for the fact that millions are expected to line the streets today in protest of the PT’s administration.
• Added to what I reported on the 11^th, it’s clear that the crisis is far from approaching the “chronic” phase during which the confusion and mayhem of the “acute” phase begin to give way to some of the measures imposed. We are still in the phase during which uncertainty reigns.

I will return later today or tomorrow when there is something to report re the outcome of today’s protests.