Negotiating the post-war peace
The "traditional" kleptocrats have begun to negotiate the political spoils of the Kleptocrat War. Vice-President Michel Temer and José Serra, likely (and perennial) candidate to the presidency, have been negotiating the terms and conditions of their return to power.
According to today's press, Serra wants Temer to commit to not running for re-election in 2018 if Dilma is impeached and Temer assumes the presidency for the next two years. Serra also wants to ensure that if the PMDB (Temer) replaces Dilma for the next couple of years, it will not engage in a "witch hunt"(whatever that is supposed to mean! I presume it means that the PSDB (Serra) will not be denied a seat at the "rents banquet" of the traditional kleptocrats!)
The necessary preparations for requesting Dilma's impeachment have been completed and will soon be placed for a vote in the Lower Chamber and if passed, will be submitted to the Senate for approval.
It does not appear likely that the PT can marshal the votes to defeat the motion in the Lower Chamber and Senate President Renan Calheiros, who has been keeping a foot in each canoe, now seems likely to accept the motion. Michel Temer will then ascend to the Presidency pending Dilma's impeachment trial.
Lula continues unemployed following the second cancellation of his nomination to the Cabinet. If Dilma is impeached, Lula's appointment is toast.
The current race is a bit like the first race (Preakness Stakes) in the Triple Crown contest that ends with the Kentucky Derby. It looks likely that the traditional kleptocrats will cross the finish line first in the first race. Next will be another race (Belmont Stakes) between and among the "traditionals" and more of the quid pro quo bargaining that has characterized the Brazilian political system for decades.
Lava-Jato will continue to ferret out the "bad guys" so when the next race is run, the field might be a bit smaller than expected.
By the time of the final race (the Derby) there might have been a further weeding out of thieves so it's possible the race could be run with a relatively and unprecedented large share of "honest brokers".
As I have mentioned in previous blog posts, the winner of the first race will necessarily be a kleptocrat from one or the other side. The second race will be among those who emerged victorious in the first, and perhaps a few "long shots". If the Derby also contains a few "long shots", the winner could be a "non-kleptocrat"..
Juzt an aside: Be prepared for the traditional discussion in the 2018 elections of what form of government is best for Brazil. This is a regular debate at every presidential election that generally includes the possible restoration of the monarchy, approving a parliamentary system, or keeping the current presidential model. The regular proponent of the parliamentary system is José Serra who has already mentioned its "advantages" by allowing the replacement of an inept prime minister without the trauma of an impeachment trial of a president. It apparently never occurs to Serra that without the appropriate institutional arrangements and safeguards, Brazil might wind up conducting a "no confidence" vote every two weeks. You'd think that after 500 years, Brazil would have decided at least on its choice of form of government!
I must confess that it is also a bit boring to always see the same cast of characters in Brazilian politics.. It's not unlike those ubiquitous high school class reunions at which all the people you knew years ago still look like they did when they were kids, but older, fatter and balder. (Yawn!)
I emphasize that you should not rule out the issue of street violence if the PT is squashed over the next couple of months. There are no signs that Dilma or Lula will retreat gently into that dark night of political oblivion.
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