BRAZIL-Possibly coming soon to a theater near you!

Presumably you are fully prepared

We can expect to see a lot of “stuff” hitting the fan over the next 30 to 45 days. I think we have covered most of the outcomes over the past few months so I hope you have built your scenarios.

Consider the following possible outcomes:

Dilma will not face impeachment charges. 

• She will marshal the votes in the Lower Chamber to defeat the motion to impeach; (End of story)

Dilma will not marshal the votes in the Lower Chamber and the motion will move to the Senate.

• She will marshal support in the Senate to file the motion and will not suffer an impeachment trial;
• She will not get sufficient support in the Senate to kill the motion and an impeachment trial will follow;
• Vice-President Michel Temer will assume the presidency during the impeachment trial;
• Temer’s party has indicated that it will break its alliance with the PT and that is likely to lead to defections of other “fringe” parties anxious to be on the side that’s winning;
• Senate President Renan Calheiros (PMDB) will have to decide whether he wants to oppose Temer and be the leader of a PMDB splinter group or will side with the party if it decides to end the relationship with the PT.

Dilma will be impeached

• Michel Temer will assume the presidency for the rest of Dilma’s term (some 32 months currently)
• The PT will go “bananas” and take to the streets, perhaps with violence (the MTST has already suggested that it set Brazil on fire!)

Dilma “walks” from her impeachment trial and reassumes the Presidency

• The PT will launch a campaign against Lava-Jato;
• The PT will conduct a witch hunt of its enemies;
• The populist policies will continue to the detriment of the deficit;
• Lula will finally get his cabinet post;
• Dilma might commute the jail sentences of those imprisoned by Lava-Jato.

Analysis:

If Dilma is impeached you can rest assured that political and social chaos will follow. The PT hardliners (CUT, MST, MTST) can be expected to take to the streets and employ violence if necessary. Lava Jato investigations will continue and Lula and Dilma will be fanning the flames of a "popular revolution" . Remember that the PT's project is to remain in power in perpetuity - i.e. to make Brazil a one-party system.

It is unlikely that the PT's support groups cited in the previous paragraph will have the will or the firepower to initiate and carry out a "popular revolution". Most of the participants in their demonstrations were paid to be involved. (Getting R$50 and a sandwich is one thing, getting shot or clubbed is quite another). If the PT cannot foment a "popular revolution" I do not rule out the possiblity of a core group of supporters to carry out urban guerrilla actions, sabotage factory production lines, promote strikes, bus burnings, and other such acts of "mass disruption". (This is familiar territory for Dilma from her earlier years.)

You might want to grab a history book or check on the Internet for the methods used by Lenin to undermine the Provisional Government in Russia and promote the October Revolution that ushered in the Bolsheviks. I also suggest you review some of the tatics of the IRA against the UK such as bombs in public parks (e.g. in abandoned baby carriages, trash containers, etc.) and in shopping centers or other public places. This cannot be ruled out.

Watch events very carefully and expect the worst. If if does not happen, hooray! But if it does, you will be prepared.