Sunday, 17 April 2016

BRAZIL-ALERT The rest is just "gravy"

Go direct to the Senate, do not pass 'Go', and do not collect $200!

At just around 23:00 the Lower Chamber registered the 342 votes necessary to remand the impeachment request to the Senate for review and, if accepted, for an impeachment trial of Dilma Rousseff. When the votes for impeachment were at 342, those against were 127.

The voting will continue until all federal deputies have voted and I will provide you with the final tally tomorrow AM. But the 342 for impeachment pretty much closes the question.

On the political "Monopoly" board, Dilma has been instructed to go straight to the Senate, not pass 'Go" and not collect the $200 for completing a trip around the board.

The next step is for the request to be analyzed by a Special Commission in the Senate where a simple majority is all that is needed to remand the document to trial. Dilma will need a 2/3 majority of the Senate to convict.

The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court will preside over the trial but the verdict is rendered by the Senate.

If Dilma is found guilty, it's "bye-bye time" and Michel Temer takes over until 2018. If she is not found guilty, she will return to a modified administration under the temporary control of Michel Temer. She will have to  rebuild her "team" and by the time she does, she will be close to the end of her term. In short, she is toast!

Over the next few days I will put together an analysis of the policy situation. There will be a short "honeymoon" period for Temer as Dilma goes off to defend her reign in her trial. The pain relief of drilling a hole in the tooth with an infected nerve (as mentioned in a previous post) and which precedes the follow-on root canal work will keep the optimism level high for a brief period.

Will write more tomorrow when the final results are in. But Dilma WILL have to face the Senate starting next week!

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