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The battle rages on

Impeachment Scorecard
Date: April	6	7	8
In favor	234	255	274
Undecided	56	69	63
Undeclared	113	75	62
Against	110	110	114

It looks like getting the remaining votes for either side will be neck-and-neck as the runners approach the finish line. Those favoring impeachment now need only 68 votes to reach the 2/3 majority in the Lower Chamber. Those against need 57 to end the agony.

So intense is the fighting that the price of a vote "against", initially reported at R$1 million to be spent on a project of the voter’s choice, has now been reported at R$2 million. The price for simply not showing up to vote remains stable at R$400k (written medical excuse required).

Dilma Rousseff continues with her finger-wagging-angry-primary-school-teacher demeanor as she denounces an attempted “putsch” on the part of as yet unnamed persons. She has been claiming “deliberate leaks” of plea bargain testimony possibly from Lava-Jato. She invokes the Constitution whenever she thinks it expedient to do so. Her claim is that the leaks are designed to “create the climate” for a coup d’etat.

What is not terribly clear is whether the alleged coup d’etat is imminent. One could easily argue that for a “climate” for a coup to exist is to simply have an “etat”. It comes with the territory in adversarial politics especially if the political institutions are weak!

Anyway, when “putsch” comes to shove, it will all come down to who gets the right number of votes, “climate” notwithstanding.

If Dilma is impeached, Brazil will have only completed the first phase of a long recovery process.  As I have argued herein, whoever wins will still be a kleptocrat. It will remain to continue to ferret out corruption and punish transgressors to establish some sort of orderly progress toward sustainable economic growth.

Neither of the antagonists in the War of the Kleptocrats is terribly fond of the Lava-Jato investigations. The PT’s main problem is not a possible “putsch” but simply that it is the first in the line of fire and its behavior seemingly more egregious. 

The “super spreadsheet” recently obtained in a search-and-seizure visit to Odebrecht provided a list of 297 politicians and 24 political parties to be investigated for corruption and other crimes.

Assuming follow-up on those data it would seem that the PT can hardly claim that it is being singled out! There’s a long line at the check-out counter!

I continue to suggest that Dilma’s choice of “conspiracy”claims is purposely designed to allow her to assert that there is a deliberate plan to unseat a legally constituted "democratic" government and do so outside the limits of the law. 

That allegation might allow her to request a State of National Defense or a State of Siege to impose curfews, prohibit street demonstrations, and censor the press among other limitations on civil rights.

The chances of approval are slim, but so are the chances of “walking” back to her job so why not play every card remaining in the deck?

And, of course, rather than try to put troops on the street, the PT itself could simply take to the streets in violent protest.

So, keep a close eye on events and listen closely to the words used as the rhetoric heats up!

Jim