BRAZIL-The PT says there will be no coup.....

...but if it happens, there will be blood!

The Supreme Court legislates?

The battle cry of the PT has broadened in scope. Initially, it was simply that “There will be no ‘putsch’!” Now the phrase cited above has been added to advise that if Dilma is impeached blood will run on the streets.

The bar fight spreads. The Supreme Court has instructed the Lower Chamber to open impeachment proceedings against Vice-President Michel Temer for the same alleged crimes as attributed to Dilma Rousseff – improper and illegal credit operations between the National Treasury and public banks (aka “pedaladas”). 

While standing in for Dilma who was traveling, Temer signed 4 presidential decrees approving what have been considered “pedaladas” by the Superior Accounting Court (TCU).

Based on Temer’s act and the charges raised against Dilma, Supreme Court Justice Marco Aurélio Mello seems to have concluded that “sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander” so Temer should also be impeached. 

There are a couple of issues here. The first is that it’s not clear that the Supreme Court has the authority to instructthe Lower Chamber in matters exclusive to the legislature. The second is whether Temer was acting as president or on behalf of the president.

Under the Fiscal Responsibility Law it is the president who answers for any violation of the law. Was Temer “president” or “acting on behalf”?

Most analysts believe the Lower Chamber can and will ignore the instruction. Mello has threatened serious legal action against the President of the Lower Chamber, Eduardo Cunha who has characterized the instruction as “absurd”.

The Impeachment Scorecard

The Special Commission of the Lower Chamber is expected to submit its conclusions to the Lower Chamber for a vote in plenary session. In order to send the impeachment motion forward to the Senate 342 votes are needed to approve the motion to impeach and 171 to dismiss the motion. The current scorecard was reported in today’s press as follows:

• In favor of impeachment: 234;
• Undecided: 56;
• Refused to declare: 10;
• Not available for consultation: 103
• Against impeachment: 110

As shown above, the outcome is far from certain. An additional 108 votes are needed to approve the motion to impeach, An additional 61 votes are needed to dismiss the motion and kill it in the Lower Chamber. The Estado de São Paulo has promised to publish the scorecard daily.

Proposal for General Elections in 2016

Marina Silva, former vice-presidential candidate on the ticket of Eduardo Campos in the 2014 elections, has chimed in with the recommendation that the Congress pass a constitutional amendment to call for a new election this year. (Seems like everybody wants to be president!)

Getting that one through the Congress where the administration has been offering appointments and money to block Dilma’s impeachment won't be easy! 

Marina showed up in recent polls as a potential alternative in the 2018 presidential elections. Why not move it up a bit, get in this year and then run for re-election in 2018? The message is that rather than follow the Constitution, just changeit! Brazil certainly does not lack for opportunists!

Meanwhile, over at Lava-Jato

In spite of attempts to dilute the actions of Judge Sergio Moro, Lava-Jato continues to ferret out cases of corruption and has begun to draw a “line of continuity” from the mensalão scandal denounced in 2005 to the Petrobrás financial scandal still under investigation and possibly involving the assassination of Celso Daniel, former mayor of Santo André in 2002. A recent poll showed that Moro has the support of 90% of the population.

The economy continues to falter

A recent press report informed that 72% of credit operations in 2015 were carried out by the public sector. This “crowding out” phenomenon illustrates the advance of the public sector at the expense of the private sector. This is consistent with what appears to be the objective of the New Economic Framework (Nova Matriz Economica) that the administration says exists but does not precisely define.

In summary, the administration’s is accelerating its attempts to further “de-construct” the already weak institutional arrangements of Brazil in support of its plan to hold on to power in perpetuity. According to the rhetoric of some of the PT supporters, this could include “blood in the streets” and as one spokesperson announced, “fighting on every street, every corner, and in every alley” in Brazil.

Be prepared. Nothing is certain except uncertainty. 

Dilma’s last card to be played might be to order the armed forces to enforce a State of National Defense or a State of Siege that will take the fight to the streets as threatened by her supporters.

That will answer the question I asked long ago in this blog – i.e. how far is the PT prepared to go to hold on to power? It looks like the answer is right before us!