BRAZIL-Tension building

From “putsch” to shove

Dilma Rousseff’s use of the word “golpe” (putsch or coup d’etat) is not simply rhetoric. An editorial in today’s Estado de São Paulowritten by a senior military officer suggested that the administration has entertained the possibility of invoking Title V of the 1988 Constitution (Defense of the State and of Democratic Institutions). Title V outlines the way in which the President with the advice and consent of the Council of the Republic and the National Defense Council can declare a State of National Defense and/or a State of Siege.

Article 89 of the Constitution defines the composition of the Council of the Republic and its sub-council, the National Defense Council.

The controls that apply under each contemplated situation (State of Defense or State of Siege) are provided in the articles under Title V.

It might be a good idea if you consult the referenced items in the 1988 Constitution.

Dilma would have to invoke Title V while still president so she probably has to act before impeachment proceedings are approved (i.e. soon!). 

By the time the Lower Chamber is prepared to vote on the conclusions of the Special Commission she will almost certainly know how many votes she has and whether she can “beat the rap” at that juncture in the impeachment process. If she does not have the necessary votes, she could then, still as President, invoke the measures described under Title V.

One of the questions raised in the editorial referred to above is whether the military would obey an order based on political partisanship (i.e. keeping the PT in power as opposed to protecting the State). The act could construed as illegal but the invocation of Title V would be legal. Can the military legitimately refuse to obey an illegal act issued under a legal framework?

The question clearly emphasizes the institutional quandary in which Brazil is currently involved and makes it clear while Dilma chooses to use the word "golpe" to characterize an impeachment trial.

It also raises the possibility that my hypothesis that the current situation will lead to the “bar fight” (referred to fairly often in this blog) will materialize. A couple of days ago an administration spokesman “suggested” that a negotiated solution must be worked out to avoid the fall of the “first cadaver”, which he said would be inevitable in the current “conflict environment”.

The only “negotiated solution” that would appear acceptable to the PT is that President Rousseff notbe impeached. (This is the application of one of the rules of engagement mentioned in a previous post on 27 March – i.e. “use the system against itself”).

Dilma has continuously sought to marshal legal and public support for her use of the world “golpe” to describe the movement to impeach her. If she “walks” from an impeachment trial, she will come back to office. If it looks like she cannot avoid the trial, she might choose to invoke Title V that would immediately suspend a number of actions, possibly including her trial. The armed forces would be ordered to protect the system.

If the armed forces were to disobey the order, the stage is then set for the “bar fight”! Otherwise, you can expect to see soldiers on the street enforcing the declared State of Defense or State of Siege.

I hope you have included such a scenario in your planning. If not, now is the time to consider it!