BRAZIL-It's not the end!

In fact, it’s just the beginning!

The final tally of last night’s vote to advance the impeachment process from the Lower Chamber to the Senate was 367 in favor of impeachment and 146 against (of which 137 were votes cast, 7 were abstentions, and 2 voters were absent).

Today the results are delivered to the Senate. Tomorrow the results will be read in a plenary session and a special Commission appointed to analyze the documents. The Commission has 10 days from the 20^th (Wednesday) to prepare and submit a report of its findings to a plenary session that via simple majority will accept or reject the report. 

If the Senate approves the report, the President is served and her trial begins pending the selection of a date. If 2/3 of the Senate, 54 members, find the President guilty of the charges in the accusation, she is impeached. If less than 54, she “walks”.

During her trial, Dilma Rousseff must step down from the presidency for up to 180 days and Vice-President Michel Temer assumes the office.

All is not clear-cut. Some analysts suggest that because Temer and Senate President Renan Calheiros have a history of “differences”, Calheiros might delay the process leaving Dilma in the presidency until such time as she is eventually served or the Lower Chamber decision rejected.

Other analysts suggest that Calheiros would be foolish to play around with the expectations of the public and will follow the timeline. 

However, Calheiros is the subject of 9 Lava-Jato investigations and some suggest that he might try to negotiate something (not clear exactly what! A presidential pardon perrhaps?) with Temer in exchange for rapid resolution of the steps as described above.

So, just for starters, the impeachment process itself is still up for grabs. Then there is the eventual reaction of the PT radicals to an impeachment, if it occurs. Some of those supporting Dilma have promised to “set Brazil on fire”. And even if those characters go away quietly, there is still the economy to be fixed. 

Finally, Lula is already preparing to throw sand in the gears of Temer’s plan to try to get the economy moving. According to the press, he hopes to push things forward until the 2018 elections are in view so he can base his candidacy on the implied slogan: “It didn’t work – vote for me!”).

In short, impeachment is only the “starting gun” in a process that is sure to create confusion and perhaps chaos for the next couple of years!

It’s back to the “country of the future”! (Yawn).