BRAZIL-"Why is it so hard to rule?..."

Because people are so clever

Lao Tsu continues in his Tao Te Ching (Chap. 65) to write that “Rulers who try to use cleverness, cheat the country. Those who rule without cleverness are a blessing to the land.”

Lao Tsu distinguishes between cleverness and intelligence. Intelligent people canbe clever but it does not necessarily follow that clever people are always intelligent. In fact, they can be downright stupid some times.

Lula, Dilma, and Co. are nothing if not clever. Treating the constitutional process of impeachment as a “putsch” is clever but not smart. Buying votes in the Congress to stave off impeachment is clever but not smart. Violating the sound principles of fiscal management is clever but not smart. And the dumbest thing of all, (according to my former mentors in New Jersey) is getting caught. That usually happens when the people, too, are clever enough to figure out what is going on.

Press reports suggest today that the enthusiasm for impeaching Dilma has waned slightly (not enough to necessarily stave it off) apparently because it has dawned on the public that the alternatives are so unattractive. According to some pundits, neither Michel Temer’s plan – “A Bridge to the Future” nor Lula/Dilma’s plan – “A National Emergency Program” stands the slightest chance of stimulating sustainable recovery.

Neither program can work without short-term painful and recessive measures to include tax increases, cuts in public spending, and most certainly continued inefficient government while the private sector continues paralyzed and lacks the means and the incentive to invest.

Today’s press reports the vote tally as follows:

Folha de São Paulo:

• For impeachment: 305
• Against: 108
• Undecided/Undeclared: 100

Estado de São Paulo:

• For impeachment: 287
• Against: 115
• Undecided /Undeclared: 111

The undecided/undeclared members of the Congress will determine whether Dilma gets impeached or “walks” and it is not clear whether they will be motivated by an intelligent evaluation of the facts or by “cleverness” opposite an evaluation of the kleptocratic opportunities of either outcome.

Perhaps the final decision will depend on which group of clever kleptocrats will do the least damage while Lava-Jato continues to raise the ante for clever manipulation of the system and the confiscation of society’s rents.

This is going to take a lot of time!