BRAZIL-Update from the front

Down to 57 each

Impeachment Scorecard
Date: April	6	7	8	9
In favor	234	255	274	285
Undecided	56	69	63	63
Undeclared	113	75	62	51
Against	110	110	114	114

The number of votes needed for those in favor of impeachment and those against is now 57 for each. You can bet those last 57 will be disputed one-by-one in hand-to-hand combat.

It is somewhat amusing to note that the party with the largest number of “undecided” is the PMDB that broke with the administration’s coalition. However, a kleptocrat is first and foremost a kleptocrat. The PMDB holds 7 cabinet appointments and is estimated to have some 600 second and third tier public sector management appointments. If they vote for impeachment, they will have to leave their sinecures. If they vote against, they face expulsion from the PMDB. If impeachment occurs anyway and the PMDB takes over and they have been expelled from the party for voting “against”, they will lose those sinecures. If Dilma is not impeached and they have voted in favor of impeachment, they will also lose their jobs. What a quandary! ! Those public sector chairs are comfortable!

The Panama Papers

It seems that the triplex apartment in the beach town of Guarujá, subject of an investigation into Lula’s assets, has popped up in the leaked Panama Papers of Mossack Fonseca. In accordance with the recent decision of Supreme Court Justice Teori Zavascki to Lava-Jato judge Sérgio Moro to forward all information regarding Lula to the Supreme Court, Moro did as instructed. The press has suggested that the Panama Papers may harbor information that will add to or prove the allegations that Lula or his family are the owners of the apartment. The noose is tightening.

The municipal elections factor

Brazil is scheduled to hold municipal elections this year and the PT smells trouble. The revelations coming out of the Lava-Jato investigations have led to attrition in the PT ranks. 

In the last municipal elections, the PT elected 72 mayors. Twenty-four have now changed parties. It has also lost 28% of its municipal council members (vereadores) in the State of São Paulo. Some of the losses occurred in municipalities in which the PT had been governing virtually alone. 

Press reports suggest that the defections are not the result of recruiting efforts of the opposition but simply the desire of the candidates to distance themselves from the PT and its worsening reputation.

Nevertheless, you should not consider the race over as yet. Each side is now just 57 votes shy of winning the War of the Kleptocrats. Every single one of those votes is important and you can be sure they will be hotly disputed. Dilma could still beat the rap even though the odds seem to be moving against her. And even if she could lose the vote in the Lower Chamber, there is still the Senate to be dealt with. It ain’t over until it’s over!