BRAZIL-News from the battlefield

Combat report

Today’s casualties:

The press reported the following distribution of expected votes in the Lower Chamber re impeachment:

Impeachment Scorecard
Date:	06 Apr	07 Apr
In favor	234	255
Undecided	56	69
Undeclared	113	75
Against	110	110

Yesterday, the Special Commission to decide on whether to send the impeachment motion to a plenary session vote or to kill the motion at the Special Commission level, received the final report that indicated “crimes of responsibility” (i.e. impeachable offenses) on the part of Dilma Rousseff. Thirty-three votes of the 65-mamber Commission are required to accept the report before sending on to a plenary session. Only 32 votes for acceptance were recorded.

Consequently, the report will be discussed tomorrow and another vote called for on Monday (11 April). If the report is approved, it will be sent to the Lower Chamber for a plenary vote on or before the 15^th.

Today’s scorecard showing the expected vote distribution in the plenary session is provided in the chart above. Those in favor of impeachment picked up an additional 21 votes – for a total that is just 87 votes short of the required 342 to impeach. 

The number of votes against impeachment remained unchanged. One hundred seventy one votes "against" are required for acquittal. Still needed are 61 additional votes.

Because the “horse trading” of jobs and project funding for votes continues, there is no way to predict which way the scorecard will line up from one day to the next.

When I worked as an economic advisor to a member of the US Congress the impeachment of US President Richard Nixon was being discussed. While there was no shortage of dirty tricks in that case, I have to concede that Brazilian politicians are even more imaginative than their American counterparts. 

As I quoted a European expatriate to Brazil on a previous occasion, “You can die of many things in Brazil, but boredom is not likely to be one of them!”

I recommend you maintain the scenario in which Dilma could “walk” from her impeachment trial, go back to her job and finish her term.

Although the PMDB broke with the PT, the largest number of still undecided voters is also in the PMDB ranks (15).

A couple of goofy suggestions

Hold a new election

One of the craziest (and most opportunistic) suggestions for easing the trauma of an impeachment trial was to pass a constitutional amendment to call for new general elections. 

Not surprisingly, this suggestion was made by Marina Silva whose popularity with the voters has risen in the wake of the current confusion. She would be a viable candidate in such a scenario. Rather than followthe Constitution, the proposal is to change it. I don’t think it will happen!

Impose a parliamentary form of government

Every time Brazil faces a political crisis the question of whether a presidential or parliamentary form of government is the best way to govern the country surfaces. At present (and in the past cases as well) Brazil does not offer the conditions for eitherform to function properly. As a comedian once observed, “You can put a tuxedo on a goat, but it is still a goat!” 

Changing the form of goverrnment will simply change the modus operandi of the kleptocrats.

So, be prepared for another few months of uncertainty and political shenanigans and possibly some street violence. It ain’t over until it’s over!