...will have to be scuttled
The Brazilian Titanic is no longer seaworthy in its present condition. It has sat too long in the open sea where waves have battered it and the ship has sunk to below the water line.
The captain continues to grip the wheel, mumbling incoherently, and the “mutiny” of the passengers and members of the crew that led to the bar fight has led the fight to gradually move from the bar toward the lifeboats where a panic rush to survive will eventually replace the fight for control. It will be every man for himself and the devil take the hindmost!
If the captain cannot be removed from the bridge, he will simply be allowed to sink with the ship.
The course to Paradise is simply out of the question. The objective will be to try to get the Brazilian Titanic into calmer waters where those charged with scuttling the ship can first salvage whatever can be used to build a new vessel.
Once the usable materiel is removed, the ship will be towed back out to sea and the lid removed from the scuttling hole that will allow it to sink. The speed with which the scuttling occurs will depend on how far the lid is removed.
The immediate removal of the captain will allow for a more rapid rate of descent. However, if the captain’s fingers cannot be pried from the wheel, the descent will be slow and disorderly.
This (perhaps thankfully) ends the usefulness of the Brazilian Titanic metaphor!
In the non-metaphor world, the eventual impeachment (or not) of Dilma Rousseff will only affect the rate of descent of the economy to the bottom and what can be salvaged in the interim.
Neither the so-called “mutineers” nor those still in command can control a recovery process. Brazil is sinking from recession into depression. It will be recovering from a much lower potential for growth. A great deal of societal wealth was squandered in the attempt to create a “New Economic Framework”.
The new ship-of-state will be smaller but hopefully more modern and more agile and have a more qualified crew. But building it will take a lot of time. The sooner that project begins, the sooner Brazil will be able to discern some light at the end of a long, long tunnel.
Lava-Jato (i.e. the Executive Officer of the Brazilian Titanic) will continue to pursue those responsible for the fiasco to ensure they are properly controlled in the future. To do otherwise, will simply ensure that the new ship will eventually run into the same kinds of problems as the old one.
Simply stated, there is no “Paradise” to which a ship can set its course. Constant “seamanship” is the only requirement for blue-water sailing.
Public support for Dilma’s impeachment has declined somewhat from 68% to 61% in a recent poll. However, public support for the impeachment of Vice-President Michel Temer is not a whole lot better at 58%. In fact, the suggestion is that both resign. The problem is that leads to the succession to the presidency to the President of the Lower Chamber for whom public support is even worse (75% are reported to want to see him “out”).
This has led to pressure to simply hold new elections – a recommendation strongly supported by other opportunists who are on the “short list” of (weak) voter preference. The two likely candidates with the highest popularity ratings are Lula (how weird is that??!) with about 20% and Marina Silva with close to the same figure. In third place is Aécio Neves with about a 17% approval rating, and whose name was recently mentioned in a plea bargain as having received a campaign donation from the funds purloined from Petrobrás. (Yawn! I am beginning to think I am the only one who did not benefit. I guess foreign residents are not eligible!)
Your dominant strategy is to do some serious damage assessment, re-order your objectives for the enterprise in accordance with the new circumstances. You will have a local market for sustenance and somesectors will be able to compete in the re-emerging global market (which is growing more slowly than anticipated anyway).
You might be able to make some useful acquisitions or mergers but make sure you are armed with a very good team of attorneys and advisors. The last thing you need is take on someone else’s liabilities!
A thorough (really thorough) due diligence of potential targets will be necessary! I have also recommended ad nausea the need for a robust, iron-clad compliance program in the enterprise. Get back to sound management fundamentals. Don’t sweat the petty stuff and don’t pet the sweaty stuff. Keep it simple! Get inventories down as far as possible, unload any excess cash (if you still have any), run a tight ship with a minimal crew, and keep your eye on the horizon in the global economy.
Keep building scenarios and adjusting as necessary.
If I can be of help, you have my e-mail address.
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